The Greatest of Topps Flagship

1972 Fred Gladding - 0.4 WAR

I recently came across an article from MLB Cut4 in which various baseball writers and personalities ranked their favorite Topps flagship card from every year dating back to 1951. The writers were asked not to pick their favorites based on the most valuable or famous cards, rather cards that held particular importance to them. The results were all over the place, with favorites ranging from the 1972 Fred Gladding to the infamous 2012 Skip Schumaker.

The article got me thinking about my own favorites across the history of Topps, and I briefly pondered creating a list of my own. But considering I started collecting in 2004 and my collection features primarily 21st-century cards, I found myself needing to learn more about the history of baseball and the history of baseball cards before I jumped into a project of that nature.

2012 Skip Schumaker - 0.8 WAR

And what better way to do this, I thought, than to explore the history of baseball cards through card checklists, statistics, and a ton of research.

Though baseball's advanced metrics are a common topic of controversy in 2018, I am a huge numbers buff, and I absolutely love digging through the stats to learn about players and the history of the game.

One of the most common advanced statistics used today is WAR, that is, Wins Above Replacement. While not a perfect statistic, WAR attempts to provide a single number to measure a player's contributions to their team. Though not always the most precise, WAR is an easy way to determine how well a player is performing in a given year. It will also serve as my guiding light as I attempt to determine the cards that captured the greatest seasons of baseball history...well, let's pretend history started in 1951, as did Topps Flagship.

I'm going to take a look at every Topps Flagship set dating back to 1951, evaluate the top performers at each position using WAR, and catch a glimpse at how well Topps represented baseball's greatest players year in and year out.

On the surface, this would seem to yield predictable results. Mike Trout has dominated for the past several years, and there is zero chance you won't see his card (or several) in a modern set. But modern baseball card production has certainly shifted since its inception in the first half of the 20th century, and it will be interesting to see how the industry has changed over the years.

For instance, did you know that Stan Musial was the most valuable player by WAR from 1951 to 1955, yet he didn't have a single card in Topps Flagship during that period? I find this mind-boggling, and I hope to uncover more oddities like this throughout this project.

Uncovering the greatest of Topps Flagship is soon to come, starting with 1951 later this week. And I hope you'll follow me on this journey through baseball card history.

Something Old, Something New: Cards from Nick at Dime Boxes

I recently received a wonderful 'Welcome Back' package from my pal Nick over at Dime Boxes. It's been a couple of few years since I last received a bubble mailer of cards (February of 2015, to be exact), so I was ecstatic when I got home late last week to see a loaded bubble mailer sticking out of my mail slot.

The bubble mailer was nice, but the cards within were spectacular. I mean, take a look at this beat up 1966 Walt Alston manager card. I've largely dabbled with the modern stuff over the past few years, so finding this well-loved piece of vintage cardboard is certainly fun. It also inches me a card closer to completing the 1966 Dodgers Team Set--three down, twenty-five to go.

That beautiful Alston wasn't the only throwback card in the mailer. Nick also included this fun Dodgers team card from the 1964 set. It's too bad the Dodgers don't have a celebratory card in this year's set...

Finding cards from the 60s was certainly a welcome surprise, and coming across this Kellogg's 3-D card was also a bit unexpected. Despite spending the first half of this decade collecting, I never actually had one of these in my collection. Super fun.

Nick also passed along some modern cards, this Turner from perhaps the best product of the past few years: Stadium Club. I'm a huge fan of Justin Turner, both for his wonderful play in a Dodgers uni and for his magnificent red mane. I'm a redhead myself (though balding far too quickly), so redheaded players in the majors is a fun time. My exit from collecting coincided with Turner's rise in Los Angeles, so I was never able to collect many of his cards. I'm hoping that changes moving forward.

I don't have a whole lot to say here. You've just got to appreciate the wonderful photography in Stadium Club. Beautiful card.

More fun photography, this time from Flagship. Nick sent me a ton of Flagship, knocking out a ton needs from the past few years. While there were certainly some awesome cards, I definitely needed to comment on this wonderful Rob Segedin. First, it's a card for freaking Rob Segedin--not a household name by any means. Rob hasn't seen the majors since last season and probably won't find his way back onto the Dodgers roster this year, but this RC is fun. Second, how often do we see horizontal cards of outfielders throwing from the outfield? It stood out to me, so I'm guessing it's not all that common.

A Cody Bellinger card! The market was flooded with Bellinger (and Judge) cards last year after a strong rookie campaign, though a Belli card had yet to enter my collection until now. 

Thanks again for the cards. Nick! 

"Midseason" Predictions: Division and Wild Card Winners

There are a number of days I look forward to every year. Food-centric holidays, for instance, are near the top of my list: Thanksgiving, Christmas, my birthday. Vacation days are always great, as well. And since I started working full-time, I've started to appreciate Fridays more and more.

When it comes to baseball, I, like every other fan, look forward to Opening Day. And because that never comes quickly enough, the day pitchers and catchers report is typically circled on my calendar. But there is something special about July 31st--the trade deadline.

Sure, as a Dodgers fan, I am bit blessed. The trade deadline usually sees the Dodgers buying big. Rich Hill and Josh Reddick in 2016, Yu Darvish in 2017, and Manny Machado and Brian Dozier this year. Of course, that world series win has still been elusive (damn you, Astros!) but it's a fun time nonetheless.

It's also a good time to update my predictions for the year. I typically do this every year and post them on Twitter, and this year is no different. Let's take a look at some terrible takes from April.

Some of these are spot on, though there are certainly some misses. I'm fairly certain Dave Martinez isn't going to take home the Manager of the Year award this season...

Let's go through the list and make some updated predictions.

National League West
Pre-Season Prediction: Dodgers
Mid-Season Prediction: Dodgers

The Dodgers are loaded. The Dodgers were loaded before they landed Machado and Dozier at the deadline, but now they've added to potent bats to the lineup and are going to slug their way to the division crown a la the 2017 Houston Astros. Just don't look at the bullpen depth chart behind Kenley Jansen...it's not loaded.

National League Central
Pre-Season Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Mid-Season Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were the darling of baseball a few years ago, though they seem to have dropped off a bit since last year's disappointing (but still great) season. Anchored by Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez (a candidate for MVP), and Kyle Schwarber, the Cubs offense is strong. The pitching staff on the other hand...yikes. Expect better numbers from them in the second half as they stave off the Brewers to take the division.

National League East
Pre-Season Prediction: Washington Nationals
Mid-Season Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Nationals are, by far, this year's biggest disappointment. They have veteran talent (Harper, Murphy, and Rendon), young studs (Soto and Turner), and the best pitcher in baseball (Scherzer), the underwhelming start is surprising. It's hard to look at that talent and not think they can make a run at the division, but I think they'll fall just short of the upstart Phillies.

Jayson Werth's beard foresaw the Nationals' demise and got the hell out of there. 

NL Wild Card Winners
Pre-Season Predictions: D-Backs and Cardinals
Mid-Season Predictions: Brewers and D-Backs

The Brewers are a strong team, though the pitching can use some work. Lorenzo Cain is quietly having a tremendous year and deserves MVP consideration. The second wild card will be tight, with the Braves, D-Backs, Pirates, and Nationals all pushing for a spot, but I think the D-Backs will take it.


American League West
Pre-Season Prediction: Houston Astros
Mid-Season Prediction: Houston Astros

They're the best all-around team in baseball. They have one of the strongest pitchings staffs in recent memory and an incredibly powerful offense. I'm not a fan of a certain mid-season move, however.

American League Central
Pre-Season Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Mid-Season Prediction: Cleveland Indians

The AL Central is the worst division in baseball. The Indians didn't do much at the deadline but would have to fail catastrophically fail to lose the division lead.

American League East
Pre-Season Prediction: Yankees
Mid-Season Prediction: Red Sox

The Red Sox have been a juggernaut this year. The Yankees have too. You can find thousands of words about them elsewhere. Red Sox take the division.

AL Wild Card Winners
Pre-Season Predictions: Red Sox and Twins
Mid-Season Predictions: Yankees and Athletics

The Twins have definitely underwhelmed and won't sniff the postseason. The Athletics have surged over the past few weeks and should very quickly take over the floundering Mariners in the standings. The will Yankees get the first wild card despite winning 100 games.

World Series Winner
Los Angeles Dodgers over Houston Astros in seven games. I'm sticking with this. Oh please let me be right.

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I'll be back in a few days to make some award predictions. In the meantime, let me know what you think of these predictions in the comments.